NFL Conference Championship Walkthrough and Predictions

Well, it’s certainly going to be hard to top that divisional round. After one of the greatest weekends of football the world has ever seen, we are now looking forward to a couple of championship games that hopefully provide a fraction of the entertainment last week provided. With star quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Matthew Stafford, and… Jimmy Garoppolo taking the stage, these games are sure to be entertaining. With the Super Bowl just two weeks away, let’s get into some championship matchups.

Sunday 1/30

(4) Cincinnati Bengals @ (2) Kansas City Chiefs: 3:00 PM ET (CBS)

Expected Weather: 45℉, 3 mph wind, 0% precipitation 

Current Game Line: Chiefs -7

Jay Biggerstaff / USA TODAY Sports

This year’s AFC Championship game is being played between the new kids on the block, the Cincinnati Bengals, and the established juggernaut, the Kansas City Chiefs. Both of these teams are coming off of exciting wins, although they won with fairly different playstyles. The Bengals defeated the top-seeded Titans behind a bend-don’t-break defense and a rookie kicker in Evan McPherson who nailed all four of his field-goal attempts. On the other hand, the Chiefs emerged victorious over the Bills in arguably the greatest playoff game in recent memory. If you need any hint on what occurred during this past game, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen combined for 246 passing yards and four touchdowns after the final two minutes of the 4th quarter. 

ESPN win probability chart from Bills vs Chiefs divisional matchup

The Bengals and Chiefs had a recent matchup back in Week 17. The Bengals were in the midst of an offensive explosion from Joe Burrow and the rest of the Cincinnati offense while the Chiefs were returning to their expected offensive dominance by adjusting to new defensive strategies. The Bengals were the winners of that matchup in what was a 31-34 shootout where Joe Burrow passed for nearly 450 yards and Ja’Marr Chase broke numerous rookie receiving records on his way to 266 receiving yards and three touchdowns. This time around, the game should come down to what each team can do on the defensive side. 

Cincinnati will need to focus on a way to contain Patrick Mahomes’ scrambling ability as a large majority of the Chief’s yardage came as a result of the Bills being unable to bring down the superstar quarterback when they had a shot. Even with Ryan Tannehill trying to show fans otherwise, the Bengals have an incredibly suspect secondary. They will need all the help they can get from their defensive line who will need to put pressure on Patrick Mahomes to limit his time in the pocket.  

Kansas City is favored but they will need to have a defensive plan that is similar to what the Titans were able to accomplish last week. The Bengals are nearly unstoppable when Joe Burrow has a clean pocket which is illustrated by his 76.2% clean pocket completion percentage (1st in the NFL). Despite their loss, Tennessee was able to disrupt that clean pocket by overpowering the Bengals’ mediocre offensive line and sacking Joe Burrow nine times, tying a single-game playoff record. If the Chiefs are able to replicate a fraction of the pressure the Titans put on Joe Burrow, they will have an even better shot at advancing to the Super Bowl. 

The Pick: As much as the world wants to see the Bengals upset the Chiefs in this game, myself included, it’s just not going to happen. The Chiefs showed how unstoppable they can be on offense in their last matchup against the Bills and I just don’t see the Bengals being able to keep up. Cincinnati has struggled inside the red zone throughout these playoffs and they will need to be much more efficient than they have been when those opportunities arise. Even with their bright future, the Bengals have been given the monumental task of shutting down this Chiefs offense and that isn’t appearing to be a likely scenario. Much to the chagrin of most fans, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will most likely be appearing in their third straight Super Bowl on February 13th. 

(6) San Francisco 49ers @ (4) Los Angeles Rams: 6:30 PM ET (FOX)

Expected Weather: 72℉, 6 mph wind, 0% precipitation

Current Game Line: Rams -3.5

Nathan Ray Seebeck / USA TODAY Sports

This coming Sunday, the 49ers will be facing off against the Rams for a third time this season in the NFC Championship. This game is being played in what is being recognized as the 49er’s home away from home, Sofi Stadium. The 49ers have taken advantage of this matchup for the past three years as they’ve won the last six matchups. Kyle Shanahan certainly seems to have Sean McVay’s number but this is the playoffs, anything can happen. 

These two teams are both coming off of walk-off field goal wins but they were quite different. San Francisco defeated the number one seed in the Packers due to a fantastic pass rush and the Green Bay special teams unit being downright terrible. The Rams sprinted out to an early lead against the Bucs but tried everything they could to blow it. What was originally a 27-3 lead quickly dissipated and turned into a 27-27 tie thanks to a couple of Cam Akers fumbles and a multitude of other reasons. However, thanks to the excellent connection of Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp, the Rams were able to get the ball in a nice position for Matt Gay to end the game with a field goal. 

The key to this game is whether or not LT Trent Williams will be suiting up for the 49ers as he is listed as questionable for this game. Williams has not participated in practice yet this week due to what is reported as a high-ankle sprain. Trent Williams is arguably the most important piece of this offense due to his reputation of being the best run blocker in the league on a run-first offense. If he isn’t able to dress for the game, then the Rams might have a field day with their slew of talent on the defensive line. The 49ers were able to come away with a win the last time they were without Williams in Week 18 but it wasn’t easy as the game was won in overtime, 27-24. They’ve proven that they can beat the Rams without him but that doesn’t mean his absence won’t hurt tremendously. 

On the other side, the Rams are welcoming back the leader of their offensive line with LT Andrew Whitworth. Whitworth was certainly missed from last week’s game as the Bucs pass rush was able to break through more often as the game went on. FS Taylor Rapp is still listed as questionable due to his concussion that was suffered in Week 18 and WR Van Jefferson is also listed as questionable with a knee injury. If both miss the NFC Championship, it won’t be the end of the world as Eric Weddle was able to fill in nicely at free safety and the Rams have plenty of weapons that can take more of a workload without the presence of Van Jefferson. 

The Pick: This is a very difficult game to pick a winner in as one part of me is thinking that Kyle Shanahan will continue to have Sean McVay’s number while another part is thinking that the Rams will finally get it done against their NFC West rivals. I’m flipping a coin and picking the 49ers in this one, mostly because of the historical statistics behind going for a three-game sweep in a single season. Despite the Saints failing to capture the three-game sweep last season against the Buccaneers, out of the 22 times this instance has occurred, the team that is going for the sweep has won 64 percent of the time. Also, SoFi Stadium is likely to be taken over by the 49ers fanbase for the third time this year so the home field advantage is somewhat flipped for this game. Anything could happen in these championship games but I’m leaning toward a rematch of Super Bowl 54 between the Chiefs and 49ers.

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